According to data from Vietnam Customs, in February 2024, pangasius export turnover reached more than 90 million USD, down 42% compared to the same period last year. Cumulative pangasius exports as of the end of February 2024 still increased 6% over the same period and reached 255 million USD. This increase is mainly due to a record increase in export value in January 2024 when many markets increased imports to stock up for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Specifically, fresh/ frozen/ dried pangasius products reached 46 million USD, increased 24%, frozen pangasius fillets reached 204 million USD, increased 3%, value-added pangasius reached 5 million USD, increased 13%. The top markets importing Vietnamese pangasius in the first 2 months of 2024 are still familiar markets: China & Hong Kong, the US, Brazil, the EU and countries in the CPTPP.

Some outstanding pangasius markets

China & Hong Kong are still Vietnam's leading pangasius importers with 23 million USD consumed in February 2024, down 65% compared to February 2023. In the first two months of this year, the value of pangasius exports to this market reached 75 million USD, down 4% compared to the same period in 2023.

Notably, in the first month of this year, exports of frozen/dried pangasius products (HS code 03) (except fish under HS code 0304) to China increased 6.5 times compared to the same period last year. This value is even higher than the export value of frozen pangasius fillets under HS code 0304 (except fish cakes and surimi products) - the main product to this market in January 2023.

Cumulative pangasius exports to The US market in the first 2 months of this year reached 34 million USD, up 25% over the same period last year mainly thanks to the turnover of the previous month nearly doubling.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) recently announced the final results of the 19th anti-dumping tax review (POR19) on Vietnamese frozen pangasius fillets exported to The US. Compared to the preliminary review results of POR 19 announced in September 2023, the final tax rate of POR19 is 0.04 USD/kg higher. However, in general, the POR19 anti-dumping tax rate has been significantly reduced compared to the final results of the previous POR18 review. This is a quite positive signal for Vietnamese pangasius export enterprises in the near future.

In March 2023, The US Government announced Executive Order 14068 (E.O 14068) to ban the import of aquatic products originating from Russia, to tighten the ban on importing Russian pollock. The suspension of imports of aquatic products from Russia creates a large gap and this will be an opportunity for Vietnamese pangasius to replace two key products, pollock and cod.

In January 2024, Vietnamese pangasius exports to The EU market reached 13 million USD, increased 20% over the same period last year, accounting for 7.8% of the total pangasius exports to markets. In particular, the Netherlands continues to be the market consuming the most pangasius in the EU with 4 million USD, an increase of 16% over the same period in 2023. Behind the Netherlands, the markets of Spain, Germany, and Belgium , Poland are the main markets importing a lot of Vietnamese pangasius in the EU.

Notably, pangasius exports to some retail markets in the bloc recorded 3-digit growth, including Hungary, which increased 4 times; Slovenia, Spain and France increased about 2.5 times and Italy increased 2 times compared to January 2023.

Also according to Vietnam Customs data, in the first half of February this year, Germany only bought less than 700 thousand USD of pangasius from Vietnam, down 60% compared to the same period in 2023. As of February 15, 2024, cumulative Pangasius exports to Germany are expected to reach about 2.5 million USD, down 42% over the same period last year. While most of the main markets consuming pangasius increased imports, Germany from a bright spot in the first half of 2023 became a market with export turnover increasing and decreasing erratically.

Some prospects of Vietnamese pangasius in 2024

• The US personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) is showing positive developments, showing that consumption in this country is improving.
• The results of the anti-dumping tax review bring many prospects for Vietnam's pangasius export industry in 2024, when the tax rate is much reduced compared to last year, helping Vietnam's pangasius products have more strength in the US market.
• Pangasius export prices are forecast to recover in 2024, which is also considered an opportunity for businesses to grow their business.
• Input costs are expected to decrease thanks to the continued downward trend in grain prices and the forecast for milder weather next year.